In 1798, Thomas Malthus made a parsimonious, albeit depressing, argument that population growth will eventually outpace agricultural production. Luckily that point has never been reached thanks to improvements in agricultural productivity. Today, the malthusian catastrophe is limited to science fiction and Econ 101 classes. However, was Malthus right after all? 
One reporter might think so. Ambrose Evans-Pritchard of the Telegraph recently argued that concerns over global warming have produced a surge in use of corn for ethanol. He argues this trend is driving up the price of food everywhere.
Will rising prices spark future food wars? Atleast one academic leaves the possibility open. In his book, Collapse, Jared Diamond offers the second most fascinating perspective on the Rwandan genocide I have heard to date:
Diamond observes that pre-genocide Rwanda had a population density approaching that of Holland, supported by Stone Age agriculture: In the years preceding the genocide, Rwanda suffered a precipitous decline in per capita food production because of drought and overworked soil, which in turn caused massive deforestation. The upshot was dramatically rising levels of theft and violence perpetrated by landless and hungry young men. Diamond quotes a French scholar on East Africa, Gerard Prunier: “The decision to kill was of course made by politicians, for political reasons. But at least part of the reason why it was carried out so thoroughly by the ordinary rank-and-file peasants . . . was feeling that there were too many people on too little land, and that with a reduction in their numbers, there would be more for the survivors.”
So, should you start stockpiling ammo and cans of tuna for a global food war? Not unless you like casserole. First, global hunger is not so much caused by insufficient production but from our inability to distribute it effectively. Humanity grows enough calories but cannot get it to the people who need it. Second, while the article is a good read, the real problem is more subtle than blaming Al Gore. The rise in food prices is likely caused more by fuel prices than ethanol. Oil prices have risen dramatically in recent years and the cost is being transfered to customers, some of which cannot afford it. Finally, the recent “food riots” are a symptoms of greater problems, including economic and political instability. That is, we will need more than bags of flour to get out of this mess.
Last week the Danes handed over World Food Programme (WFP) ship escorting duties to the Dutch. Since November, all ships carrying WFP aid have been escorted into Somali ports by European naval vessels (French, Danish, and now Dutch). Prior to the military escorts, three ships with WFP food aid were hijacked by pirates. In one case the crew was held for over 100 days. After the hijackings many shipping companies refused to carry aid into Somalia. Only the guarantee of military escorts allowed the Somali food aid to flow again.
The Somali pirates are a great example of “super empowered individuals“. Just a handful of lightly armed para-militaries were able to disrupt food aid feeding two million Somalis for months. If that is not power, I do not know what is.
The always enjoyable blog, New Security Beat, reports on a growing poaching problem in Tanzania. Interestingly, the poachers are not criminals after Ivory, but refugees after protein. Refugees in Tanzania have started eating local wildlife as a source of protein, sorely lacking in their UN provided food. The problem is that the refugees’ free protein often comes from chimpanzees and other endangered species.
In response to the report’s assertions, Christiane Berthiaume of the UN World Food Programme, which feeds 215,000 refugees in Tanzania, said that meat spoils quickly, and substituting canned meat for the cheaper beans that currently supply the refugees with protein would cost an additional $46 million over the estimated $60 million currently dedicated to feeding refugees in Tanzania during 2007 and 2008.