On July 2nd, the Colombian military staged a stunning dupe, convincing FARC to hand over 15 hostages, including three Americans and Ingrid Betancourt, to a helicopter belonging to a fake humanitarian NGO. Today, CNN described some unpublished video taken during the rescue that included the name of the fake humanitarian organization the operation used as cover:
The unpublished video also reveals an emblem that bears the Spanish words “Mision Internacional Humanitaria” (International Humanitarian Mission) and a stylized red bird made up of wavy red lines above two curved branches of blue leaves. In the 3½-minute video of the operation issued by the military, emblems pasted on the side of the rescue helicopter cannot be seen. But in the unpublished video and photos shown to CNN, emblems measuring about one square meter (one square yard) are pasted onto the outside of the chopper.
The same emblem appears on the Web site for Mision Internacional Humanitaria, which describes itself as a non-governmental organization based in Barcelona, Spain, that “works to improve the processes of development to guarantee equality of opportunity for individuals and peoples.”
It appears the Colombian military even went so far as to setup a website for the fictional NGO just in case FARC leaders googled it. However, luckily the FARC did not have even basic knowledge of domain names. Why? Because a simple whois query, used to determine the owner of a domain name, reveals the the NGO’s domain name (Misionhi.org) was registered just six days before the rescue. If FARC did a whois search, something your son or daughter probably already knows how to do, the cover story of the NGO and perhaps the entire operation could have been blown.
Here is the full whois data:
Domain ID:D153122982-LROR
Domain Name:MISIONHI.ORG
Created On:27-Jun-2008 21:50:45 UTC
Last Updated On:27-Jun-2008 22:03:57 UTC
Expiration Date:27-Jun-2009 21:50:45 UTC
Sponsoring Registrar:Netfirms, Inc. (R1427-LROR)
Status:TRANSFER PROHIBITED
Registrant ID:NF-OWNER-93790
Registrant Name:david olarte
Registrant Organization:darts studio
Registrant Street1:cll 6d # 79a - 56 int 6 apt 446
Registrant Street2:
Registrant Street3:
Registrant City:Bogota
Registrant State/Province:NA
Registrant Postal Code:00000
Registrant Country:CO
Registrant Phone:+1.4126184000
Registrant Phone Ext.:
Registrant FAX:
Registrant FAX Ext.:
Registrant Email:davidolarte99@hotmail.com
Admin ID:NF-ADMIN-93790
Admin Name:david olarte
Admin Organization:darts studio
Admin Street1:cll 6d # 79a - 56 int 6 apt 446
Admin Street2:
Admin Street3:
Admin City:Bogota
Admin State/Province:NA
Admin Postal Code:00000
Admin Country:CO
Admin Phone:+1.4126184000
Admin Phone Ext.:
Admin FAX:
Admin FAX Ext.:
Admin Email:davidolarte99@hotmail.com
Tech ID:NF-TECH-93790
Tech Name:Domains Manager
Tech Street1:5160 Yonge St., 1800
Tech Street2:
Tech Street3:
Tech City:Toronto
Tech State/Province:ON
Tech Postal Code:M2N 6L9
Tech Country:CA
Tech Phone:+1.4166612100
Tech Phone Ext.:
Tech FAX:
Tech FAX Ext.:
Tech Email:support@netfirms.com
Name Server:NS100.WHBDNS.COM
Name Server:NS101.WHBDNS.COM
How many Iraqi insurgent attacks will occur next year causing 1 casualty? 10 casualties? 200 casualties? How many FARC attacks will occur next year causing 30 casualties? How many Tamil Tiger attacks will occur next year causing 500 casualties? One very interesting research paper just released argues it knows the answers, and finding them requires a simple number: 2.5.
The paper by Neil Johnson, Mike Spagat, Jorge Restrepo, Oscar Becerra, Juan Bohorquez, Nicolas Suarez, Elvira Restrepo, and Roberto Zarama argues modern insurgent attacks all obey the same power law. In plain english: in all modern insurgent conflict, attacks causing many casualties will occur with the same relative frequency to attacks causing few casualties. Simply by knowing the average number of attacks per year, the authors argue it is possible to predict the number of future attacks causing a certain number casualties in a future year.
Want to calculate your own predictions? It is easy: First, take the average number of attacks per year for the conflict. Second, select a level of attack deadliness (number of casualties) you want to predict. Third, plug them into the formula below.
For example, imagine a conflict with an average of 1000 insurgent attacks per year and we want to calculate how many attacks will cause 10 casualties in a future year:
The model predicts slightly over 3 attacks causing 10 casualties will occur in a one year period.
Are the authors correct? I have no idea, but it is a very interesting approach to an important question. If you want to know more, check out this Physorg article containing a link to the original paper (might be gated).
Update: Check out Drew at Zero Intelligence Agents for a more informed discussion of the paper.