War & Health

In 1798, Thomas Malthus made a parsimonious, albeit depressing, argument that population growth will eventually outpace agricultural production. Luckily that point has never been reached thanks to improvements in agricultural productivity. Today, the malthusian catastrophe is limited to science fiction and Econ 101 classes. However, was Malthus right after all?

One reporter might think so. Ambrose Evans-Pritchard of the Telegraph recently argued that concerns over global warming have produced a surge in use of corn for ethanol. He argues this trend is driving up the price of food everywhere.

Will rising prices spark future food wars? Atleast one academic leaves the possibility open. In his book, Collapse, Jared Diamond offers the second most fascinating perspective on the Rwandan genocide I have heard to date:

Diamond observes that pre-genocide Rwanda had a population density approaching that of Holland, supported by Stone Age agriculture: In the years preceding the genocide, Rwanda suffered a precipitous decline in per capita food production because of drought and overworked soil, which in turn caused massive deforestation. The upshot was dramatically rising levels of theft and violence perpetrated by landless and hungry young men. Diamond quotes a French scholar on East Africa, Gerard Prunier: “The decision to kill was of course made by politicians, for political reasons. But at least part of the reason why it was carried out so thoroughly by the ordinary rank-and-file peasants . . . was feeling that there were too many people on too little land, and that with a reduction in their numbers, there would be more for the survivors.”

So, should you start stockpiling ammo and cans of tuna for a global food war? Not unless you like casserole. First, global hunger is not so much caused by insufficient production but from our inability to distribute it effectively. Humanity grows enough calories but cannot get it to the people who need it. Second, while the article is a good read, the real problem is more subtle than blaming Al Gore. The rise in food prices is likely caused more by fuel prices than ethanol. Oil prices have risen dramatically in recent years and the cost is being transfered to customers, some of which cannot afford it. Finally, the recent “food riots” are a symptoms of greater problems, including economic and political instability. That is, we will need more than bags of flour to get out of this mess.

Photo Credit: Here and Here.